Khairul Alam ; Dhaka — For decades, Bangladesh was hailed as a global success story in population management.
After bringing down its total fertility rate (TFR) from over six children per mother at independence to nearly replaceable levels, the country is now facing a startling reversal.
New data reveals that the TFR has ticked upwards for the first time in memory, with demographers and officials warning of severe economic, health, and infrastructural pressures if the trend is not immediately halted.
A recent survey, jointly published by UNICEF and the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), indicates the national TFR now stands at 2.4.
This is a subtle yet significant increase from the previous figure of 2.3. Experts emphasize that in a nation with an already high population density, this marginal increase can translate into millions of additional citizens, putting an immense strain on resources and services.
For the general population, this trend can be simplified as this: while a few years ago, 10 mothers were giving birth to 23 children, that number has now increased to 24.
A Crisis of Personnel and Policy
Demographers are pointing directly to a perfect storm of systemic failures within the country’s population control infrastructure.
For over ten years, national birth control programs have been described as stagnant or dwindling. The problem is particularly acute within the Directorate General of Family Planning (DGFP).
This crucial agency is currently operating with a staggering vacancy rate of 27% across its entire structure, from its central headquarters in Dhaka to its vital field operations.
Recruitment of new staff has ground to a halt, leaving existing field workers completely overwhelmed.
Empty Shelves and Government Indifference
The staff shortage is only half of the problem. A parallel, severe shortage of government-supplied contraceptive materials has paralyzed the field-level efforts.
Many couples across Bangladesh are now unable to access essential birth control products, such as oral pills or condoms, through public channels when they need them.
Internal government websites that track contraceptive inventory showed, as recently as late March, that regional public warehouses across the country had virtually zero stock of oral pills, IUDs, or contraceptive implants.
Only a tiny fraction of the necessary contraceptive materials were available in a couple of remote regional centers.
The material crisis began during the final years of the recently ousted Awami League administration and persisted, unresolved, throughout the subsequent 18-month interim government, with purchase orders being seemingly bogged down by bureaucratic delays.
Private providers like the Social Marketing Company (SMC) have reported a significant surge in their sales of oral pills, condoms, and injectables, as people are forced to turn to commercial alternatives.
However, many impoverished couples simply cannot afford to regularly purchase these items at market prices. “Many people are dependent on our oral pills, condoms, injectables, IUDs, and implants; they use our products regularly.
Sales of pills, condoms, and injectables have increased significantly for about a year,” noted Taslim Uddin Khan, Managing Director and CEO of SMC.
Beyond logistical and staffing breakdowns, a broader policy shift has been blamed. Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, in a 2010 parliamentary speech, had famously declared her view that Bangladesh’s large population was a “strength,” not a “burden.“
Demographers argue this stance trickled down and significantly diluted the political urgency that once fueled family planning programs.
As evidence, they point out that during her 15-year administration, the highest policymaking body, the National Population Council, met only once, despite a mandate for annual meetings.
Furthermore, they note that she never personally attended World Population Day events during her entire premiership from 2009 to 2024.
This perceived government indifference, coupled with a 2018 policy change that abandoned the more aggressive “one child is best” slogan to the softer, older slogan, has also been cited as contributing to a more relaxed attitude towards family planning at the ground level.
The Heavy Toll of Unchecked Growth
The consequences of this rising fertility rate are far-reaching. Health experts stress that women who bear more children face significantly higher risks of anemia, malnutrition, and life-threatening childbirth complications.
Frequent pregnancies are also directly linked to conditions like uterine prolapse and fistula. Children born into larger families are more likely to be underweight and suffer from malnutrition.
For the nation, unchecked growth directly undermines progress in education, women’s empowerment, and poverty reduction.
Projections from the UN show that even if the TFR had remained at 2.3, Bangladesh’s population would swell to nearly 197 million by 2036.
However, if the current upward trend persists, a team of experts projecting Bangladesh’s population situation calculates the nation could face an additional strain of almost 10 million extra people over the next decade.
Bangladesh’s hard-won progress in population stabilization is in clear jeopardy.
The confluence of a crippled DGFP, a crippling shortage of contraceptive supplies, and a history of policy indifference has created a perfect storm. The nation is now at a critical juncture.
Without an immediate, forceful, and coordinated national effort to rebuild the family planning infrastructure, restock essential supplies, and put the issue back at the top of the national agenda, Bangladesh risks not only reversing decades of progress but also creating a massive, unsustainable population bubble that could compromise its development for generations to come.