Muhammad Tareq — Bangladesh’s Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) has drafted an ambitious goods export target of $58 billion for the fiscal year 2026-27, aiming for a massive 21% growth over the previous year’s earnings.
This bold projection comes despite the country narrowly missing its export target for the recently concluded FY 2025-26 by approximately 1%.
The draft proposal has already been forwarded to the Ministry of Commerce. Commerce Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury is expected to officially announce the final export targets for both goods and services next week.
Driving Growth via Ready-Made Garments
As with previous years, the macroeconomic strategy heavily relies on the Ready-Made Garments (RMG) sector to shoulder the bulk of the target. Out of the projected $58 billion, the EPB has earmarked $45.8 billion exclusively for RMG exports.
The targets were drafted following extensive consultations at the EPB headquarters in Karwan Bazar, Dhaka.
The meeting brought together representatives from various public and private sectors, including agriculture, fisheries, tea, leather, pharmaceuticals, and engineering, alongside major trade bodies.
The final draft took into account global economic trends, demand forecasting in major Western markets, and the potential impacts of upcoming trade deals, such as the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan.
Industry Leaders Express Skepticism
Despite the optimistic government outlook, top trade bodies have urged caution, pointing toward volatile global demands.
During the consultation phase, the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) recommended a modest 10% growth target, while the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) advised a conservative 5% growth projection.
Industry insiders fear that a 21% leap is decoupled from the current realities of global supply chains. Speaking on the matter, BKMEA President Mohammad Hatem raised sharp concerns regarding the feasibility of the target:
“The export target was not achieved in the fiscal year that just ended. Given that reality, what has changed so drastically that exports will suddenly jump by 21%?
The ground reality is that exports to our primary market, the European Union, are consistently declining.
The export situation in the United States has also been unfavorable for the past few months.
Even if exports grow by 100% in all other countries combined—excluding these two major markets—achieving such a massive target remains unrealistic.”
Diversification Goals
While apparel remains the cornerstone of Bangladesh’s export portfolio, the EPB’s draft proposal also sets elevated targets for non-RMG sectors.
High growth expectations have been mapped out for leather goods, agricultural products, jute, engineering software, and pharmaceuticals in a bid to accelerate export diversification and mitigate market risks.
Whether the interim government’s policy adjustments and potential trade pacts can offset the sluggish demand in traditional Western strongholds remains to be seen as the new fiscal year unfolds.