Lisa Akanda – A short-term flood situation is expected to develop in several northern districts of Bangladesh by Monday, driven by heavy upstream torrential rainfall in India and rising domestic river levels.
The Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC) has sounded alarms as multiple major rivers approach or breach their danger thresholds, threatening low-lying plains and riverbasin communities.
Simultaneously, an active low-pressure system over the North-West Bay of Bengal has prompted the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) to hoist Local Cautionary Signal No. 3 at the maritime ports of Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, Mongla, and Payra.
Squally weather is expected across coastal regions, and all fishing boats and trawlers have been strictly advised to remain close to the coast until further notice.
Northern Flood Alarms and Regional Impacts
According to the FFWC’s latest bulletin, the water levels of the Teesta, Dharla, and Dudhkumar rivers are projected to swell further over the next two days, likely crossing the danger mark in several areas.
This surge puts low-lying stretches of Lalmonirhat, Nilphamari, Rangpur, Gaibandha, and Kurigram at imminent risk of short-term flash floods.
Local Water Development Board (WDB) officials are closely monitoring the developments:
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Kurigram: WDB Executive Engineer Rakibul Hasan confirmed that while rivers have not yet crossed the danger mark, heavy rain in India’s Assam could rapidly change the situation. Major flooding remains unlikely as the Brahmaputra is expected to stay below danger lines.
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Gaibandha: WDB Executive Engineer Shariful Islam reported that all district rivers are swelling. Low-lying areas and river shoals (chars) in Gaibandha Sadar, Sundarganj, Fulchhari, and Saghata—which already suffered floods earlier this month—face renewed inundation risks. Disaster management committees have convened emergency meetings under the district administration.
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Rangpur: WDB Executive Engineer Robiul Islam reiterated that heavy transboundary runoff will drive up the Teesta’s water levels, making short-term flooding highly probable.
Widespread River Swell and Coastal Tidal Surges
Beyond the north, the Surma-Kushiyara basin is showing critical activity, with the Kushiyara River already flowing above the danger level at Fenchuganj in Sylhet and Markuli in Sunamganj. The Someshwari River is similarly breaching danger marks at Netrokona’s Kalmakanda point.
In the southern coastal belt, the low-pressure system has induced four consecutive days of tidal surges across the Barishal division.
Rivers including the Kirtankhola, Tetulia, Meghna, Bishkhali, Baleshwar, and Payra have all overshot their danger marks, submerging ferry ghats and pontoon gangways.
Tajul Islam, Assistant Engineer of Barishal WDB, remarked that it is unprecedented for so many regional rivers to cross the danger mark simultaneously.
Kaptai Dam Decongests Reservoir
Down south in Rangamati, persistent rains and hill tracts runoff forced authorities to open all 16 spillway gates of the Kaptai Dam on Saturday morning.
According to the Karnafuli Hydroelectric Power Station management, the open gates are discharging 9,000 cubic feet per second (cusecs) of water into the Karnafuli River, while an additional 32,000 cusecs are being routed through the plant’s five power units to generate electricity.
Karnafuli Hydroelectric Power Plant Manager Mahmud Hasan noted that before releasing the water, the lake’s water level hovered at 104.09 feet Mean Sea Level (MSL), nearing the maximum danger capacity of 108 feet.
With a forecast predicting heavy to very heavy rainfall across the Rangpur division and adjacent Indian states, the next 48 to 72 hours remain critical for Bangladesh’s flood management authorities.
While large-scale, prolonged flooding is not yet anticipated for the major Brahmaputra-Jamuna or Ganges-Padma basins, local administrations are on high alert to mitigate damage to life and property in the vulnerable low-lying districts.